Conflict, Climate and Covid-19: Modeling for Pregnant-Lactating Women's and Adolescents' Undernutrition​

This pioneering project, in collaboration with the Brigham and Women's Hospital in the U.S.​, seeks to develop geospatial models to forecast the risk of undernutrition among adolescent girls and pregnant or lactating women in areas grappling with conflicts, climate challenges, and the impact of COVID-19.

The goal is to assist in targeting interventions effectively. The global concern is that a significant number of pregnant women and adolescent girls are underweight, and this problem has been exacerbated by armed conflicts, climate-related incidents, and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a lack of real-time data hinders the delivery of interventions like balanced energy-protein supplements to those at the highest risk.​

To address this issue, the researchers will employ Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial modeling. This approach will lead to the development of geospatial models tailored to countries vulnerable to conflict and climate change, such as Ethiopia and Yemen. By integrating socio-demographic and economic indicators, along with data on climate-related and conflict-related events from national databases, they will estimate the risks associated with exposure and predict outcomes, including undernutrition and anemia.​