3 The State of Higher Education in 1994 and Prospects for the Future
     
    As the decade of the 1990s opened, the Institute of International Education in New York and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) organised a conference to help assess what the needs and demand for overseas education might be in the coming decade. The report from this conference has been one of the documents made available to the Commission. [ed. Craufurd D. Goodwin, International Investment in Human Capital Overseas Education for Development, Institute of International Education, New York, 1993.] Our secretary, Mr. Sutton, contributed a paper in that report that made an effort to envisage broadly "The World in the 1990s" and gave particular attention to "Education, Modern Knowledge and National Cultures in the Third World." He found the evident uses of education for both national and individual advancement had continued to produce "an extraordinary demand for schools and universities" which national leaders felt bound to respond to. The pressures to over-expansion in higher education which the Harvard Committee observed were continuing :
     
    "Political leaders have found the demands of their citizenries for higher educational opportunities irresistible, and the common condition Of overcrowded, ill-equipped and frequently turbulent institutions of advanced education have resulted. We have had the melancholy spectacle of countries as poor as Sudan, Madagascar, Kenya, and Tanzania planning new universities when they lacked the means for adequate support of what they already had."
     
    The resulting "glut of diplomas" in the Third World had been combined with a pained awareness that even a relatively few university graduates in a poor country can produce glut in the market for employment. The UNESCO World Education Report (1993) may point out that Tanzania has only 21 students in higher education per 100,000 population whereas Canada has 5,102; but this disparity does not imply that producing more Tanzanian graduates would in any early future be a rewarding investment in that country. The sense of inequity in the denial of educational opportunity to citizens of poor countries has, in recent decades, been countered by arguments that higher education chiefly benefits a favoured minority at the expense of the population at large. The World Bank has used cost-benefit studies to show that investments in primary or secondary education in developing countries bring higher social benefits than investments in higher education. It has correspondingly argued restraint in the expansion of higher education and has found sympathetic agreement among other agencies engaged in development assistance.
     
    The argument in the Harvard Report that adding the Aga Khan University to the array of universities serving the Muslim and Third Worlds could not find justification as a mere quantitative addition thus finds continuing support.
     
    There may be legitimate argument whether the average quality of higher education across the Third World is better or worse than it was in 1983. But in areas of particular concern to the Aga Khan University, there seems a clear case for worsening. The deterioration of the African universities as economic conditions worsened in the 1980s has been notorious. Our Secretary's report on his visit to Nairobi in June 1994 included lamentable particulars on the collapse of higher education in Kenya, where overly rapid expansion with limited resources has led to student and faculty strikes and the closure of the five national universities for much of the past two years. And one finds a Pakistani newspaper article in 1993 echoing the laments heard in 1983, indeed generalising to declare that all through South Asia, "the system of higher education has collapsed". [Dawn, November 21, 1993, p.15] But it is not necessary to argue that there has been serious further general deterioration of higher education across the parts of the world of interest to us to conclude that there is a continuing need for institutions like AKU that bring not merely quantitative additions but new elements of quality in higher education.

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